ABPW10 PGTW 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/050130Z-050600ZJUN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 
136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM WEST OF YAP, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 042045Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING RAGGED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, MODERATE EQUATOR OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REVEALING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE MODEL GUIDANCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE VARYING TIMELINES OF 
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, 92W IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE NEAR TERM DESPITE 
A TUTT CELL INDUCING THE 10-15KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH 
WHILE THE TUTT ALSO FAVORABLE ENHANCES OUTFLOW POLEWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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