WTPN21 PHNC 281900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271851ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 101.2W TO 15.2N 105.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 103.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0N 99.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.9W, APPROXIMATELY 410 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA 
FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90E WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP 
AND TAKE A NORTHEASTERN TURN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 271900).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
291900Z.
//
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