ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-
291800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.1N 87.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, 
GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 281530Z 
25KM ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A LARGE CORE OF WEAK WINDS (5 KNOTS) JUST TO 
THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS 
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR 94B WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) FROM THE NORTHEAST, 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WARM-CORE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO THE ITS LIMITED TIME OVER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE A NORTHERLY TRACK AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN EXPECTED 
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST INDIA AND BANGLADESH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW GALE-FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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