WTPN21 PHNC 261900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 98.7W TO 13.8N 103.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 99.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 
99.5W, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, 
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER AND 
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
INVEST 90E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM 
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 90E WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BOTH GEFS 
AND ECENS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A 
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
271900Z.//
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