ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4N 71.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 73.5E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 231242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF 
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY 
DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS MAINTAIN A TREND LENDING TO A 
DECREASED PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT, AS THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE 
SYSTEM MORE OVER LAND. THE GEFS AND ECEPS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO DEPICTED A 
SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING A MOVE IN THE SHORT-TERM, 
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RETURN OVER WATER IN THE SHORT-
RANGE AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE SYSTEM 
CLOSER TO SHORE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE SHORT-
TERM CONTINUES TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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