ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4N 71.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 221257Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF 
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A POORLY 
DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPMENT 
WITH THIS RUN COMPARED TO THE LAST RUN, AS THE MODEL PACKAGE HAS 
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO, OR EVEN MOVING IT INLAND. 
THE GEFS AND ECEPS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO DEPICTING A GENERAL SHIFT 
EASTWARD, WITH INCREASING MEMBERS INDICATING A LANDFALL IN THE NEAR-
TERM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RETURN OVER WATER IN THE 
MEDIUM-RANGE. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO 
SHORE OR INLAND, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 
SHORT-TERM IS LOWERING BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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