ABIO10 PGTW 211200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/211200Z-211800ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.2N 73.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 210830Z ATMS 88GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO 
CONSOLIDATE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE 
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT 93A WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, HOWEVER ECMWF IS 
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEAR-TERM, REACHING TC CRITERIA LATER THAN OTHER 
MODELS DO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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