ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZMAY2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12MAY25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF 
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4S 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE 
TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM 
THE SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 
THE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH ECENS BEING 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.7S 176.3E HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NO LONGER 
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN