WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 8.5S 137.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 137.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 8.5S 137.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5S 137.7E.
12MAY25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
478 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WITH A HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED WIND FIELD. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
STRETCHED WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED FAR TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, NEAR THE FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 32P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
WORSEN AS NORTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 25 KTS BY TAU 12,
CAUSING THE VORTEX TO FURTHER SHALLOW. 32P IS FORECAST TO TRACK OFF
TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING INFLUENCE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WESTWARD TRACK AND NO
INDICATION FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120000Z IS 12 FEET.//
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