ABPW10 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102230Z-110600ZMAY2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH 
OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 
101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A 
SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A 
WESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS 
SHORT, DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 
24.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230) 
FOR FURTH DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS 
IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 
AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON 
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. SEE REF B () FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG 
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN 
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING 
VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 
101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST EASTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD AND 
THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW. SEE REF C () FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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