WTPS21 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 8.5S 137.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 102220Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 238NM NORTH 
OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 
101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A SLOW SOUTHWARD 
TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPCITS A WESTWARD TRACK AND 
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHORT, DUE TO 
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 24.MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
112230Z.
//
NNNN