ABPW10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101800Z-110600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM 
SOUTH OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
FURTHERMORE, WARM (2829C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID CLIMATE 
ARE CURRENTLY HELPING 93P WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. 
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9S 
156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA,SOLOMON 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY 
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL 
101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST 
WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH 
ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S 
171E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC 
CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 
KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST 
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT 
WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH 
OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE 
ENTIRE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST 
EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED 
WIND FIELD AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) AND 
ADDED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1) AS A LOW. ////
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