ABIO10 PGTW 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/190400Z-191800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0S 71.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A RECENT 
180409Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS FURTHER REVEALS THE BROAD, WEAK NATURE 
OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH GRADIENT WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS DISPLACED OVER 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OF 20-25 KNOTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, GOOD POLEWARD UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK OR NO DEVELOPMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK. THE GEFS MODEL PREDICTS WEAK DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS THE ECENS 
MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT AMONG ITS MEMBERS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 29S (ERROL) INFORMATION DUE TO 
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
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