ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZAPR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZAPR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18APR25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.0S 124.5E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 181500) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0S 71.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM 
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 
RECENT 180409Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS FURTHER REVEALS THE BROAD, 
WEAK NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH GRADIENT WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS 
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK OR NO DEVELOPMENT WITH A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE GEFS MODEL PREDICTS WEAK DEVELOPMENT, 
WHEREAS THE ECENS MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT AMONG 
ITS MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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