ABPW10 PGTW 171200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171200Z-180600ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.9S 136.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRAILIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170918Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
FLARING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) 
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE 
GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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