ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2S 135.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 135.1E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM 
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY 
AND A152052Z SSMIS F17 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
LLCC. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM CAPE WESSEL, AUSTRALIA INDICATES 
SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 19 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, PORTRAYING SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 30P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 25.8S 173.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.1S 172.7E, APPROXIMATELY 477 
NM NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED 
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH 
TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY AND A 151842Z SSMIS F16 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED EAST AND POLEWARD. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 40-45 KNOTS, POOR UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 25-26 C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW TO 
THE WEST AND TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
GENERATE EXTENSIVE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 984 MB. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSISTION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN