ABPW10 PGTW 160000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160000Z-160600ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S 
135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 337 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY AND A 152052Z SSMIS F17 91H 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM 
CAPE WESSEL, AUSTRALIA INDICATES SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 19 
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-
15 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, 
PORTRAYING SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 30P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
25.1S 173.2E, APPROXIMATELY 708 NM NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. SUBTROPICAL STORM 30P HAS TRACKED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET, WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXTENSIVE DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT, AND IS MERGING WITH A LARGE SUBTROPICAL LOW. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI) IMAGERY AND A 151842Z SSMIS F16 91H 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED EAST AND 
POLEWARD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 40-45 
KNOTS, POOR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 25-26 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE 
SUBTROPICAL LOW TO THE WEST AND TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO GENERATE EXTENSIVE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
48 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER 
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO 
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 986 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED FINAL WARNING INFORMATION FOR 
30P. ADDED 30P AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND ADDED A LOW AREA IN 
PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1).//
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