WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 016    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 120.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 120.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 13.9S 119.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 14.2S 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 14.6S 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 15.0S 118.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 15.8S 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 16.4S 122.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 17.4S 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 120.5E.
15APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
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