WTPS21 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 167.5E TO 22.5S 167.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 167.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 168.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 131939Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO 
WRAP FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KT) 
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
98P TRACKING SOUTHWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 
12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150200Z.
//
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