ABPW10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131800Z-140600ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.6S 170.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM 
NORTH OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 131419Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC 
WITH SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP FROM THE NORTHEAST AS 
THE SYSTEM TRANSITS SOUTH. 98P IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF 
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION THAT IS QUICKLY ORGANIZING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A 
MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GFS IS CURRENTLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, 
SHOWING A QUICK INTENSIFICATION TREND AND REACHING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WITHIN 24 HOURS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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