ABIO10 PGTW 111800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
CORRECTED/111800Z-121800ZAPR2025//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111351ZAPR25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUILDING NEAR THE LLCC. A 111007Z 
SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING 
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT INVEST 96P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO 
HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 96P. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
111400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED PARA. 2.B.(1) WITH CORRECT TCFA 
INFORMATION.//
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