ABIO10 PGTW 111430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/111430Z-111800ZAPR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111351ZAPR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7S 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH PERSISTENT AND INCREASING DEEP CORE CONVECTION. EARLIER METOP-C 
AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 101242Z REVEALED BANDING 
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODEST WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW AND INDICATIONS OF PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT VARY REGARDING THE RATE OF 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 111400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) REMAINS HIGH.//
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