WTXS21 PGTW 111400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZAPR25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4S 129.3E TO 12.6S 125.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6S 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7S 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUILDING NEAR THE LLCC. A 111007Z 
SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING 
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT INVEST 96P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO 
HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 96P. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 
PGTW 101400).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
121400Z.//
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