ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7S 130.3E REMAINS APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT AND INCREASING 
DEEP CORE CONVECTION. EARLIER METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY 
FROM 101242Z REVEALED BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 
15-20 KNOTS, MODEST WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND INDICATIONS OF PRESSURE ON THE 
EAST SIDE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BUT VARY REGARDING 
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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