ABIO10 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/101400Z-101800ZAPR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZAPR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 131.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH 
OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH INCREASING CORE 
CONVECTION. A 100915Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MULTIPLE SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES INDICATE A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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