WTXS21 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 130.6E TO 12.5S 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7S 130.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 131.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH 
OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH INCREASING CORE 
CONVECTION. A 100915Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MULTIPLE SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES INDICATE A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
111400Z.//
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