ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4N 85.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0S 132.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 091143Z 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A 
VERY BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 091306Z ASCAT-C PASS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS 
FROM MCCLUER ISLAND PORTRAY A STEADY TREND OF 10-12 KNOT WINDS FROM THE 
SOUTHEAST WITH THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION SHOWING WINDS OF 10 KNOTS 
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) OF 10-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT SHOWING SLOW MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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