ABIO10 PGTW 091200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/091200Z-091800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 85.1E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 090720Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 
090647Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS A RELATIVELY SYMMETRICAL BUT WEAK 
CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 92B WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY AS A 
WEAK CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
HOWEVER, THE ECENS ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A HANDFUL OF 
MEMBERS THAT INTENSIFY AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE COAST OF 
MYANMAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7S 134.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S 132.8E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
090928Z SSMIS F17 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED WEAK LOW-LEVEL 
BANDING WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS AT MCCLUER ISLAND ARE REPORTING AROUND 20 KTS FROM THE 
EAST-SOUTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK INTENSIFICATION TREND, ATTAINING 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE 
GRADUAL TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, NEAR 
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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