ABIO10 PGTW 090000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/090000Z-091800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)  
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED 
TO THE EAST. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS ANALYZED TO BE 
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM, SIMILAR TO A MONSOON DEPRESSION IN SIZE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92B IS IN A MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF 
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE 
MOVING FORWARD, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY BEFORE 
REACHING COASTAL MYANMAR. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO 
NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. 92B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7S 
134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 082050Z SSMIS F17 
91GHZ DEPICT A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 96P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN