ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-
091800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4N 85.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGE AT 081650Z DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THE RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS IS ANALYZED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 100 NM, SIMILAR TO A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION IN SIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92B IS 
IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG (25-
30 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF MODEL 
GUIDANCE, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MOVING 
FORWARD, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY BEFORE REACHING 
COASTAL MYANMAR. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. 92B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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