ABIO10 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/081430Z-081800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 
85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 081312Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THE RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS IS ANALYZED TO BE NEAR 100 NM, SIMILAR TO A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION IN SIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92B IS IN A 
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
(20-30 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THE ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW MEMBERS TRACKING NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING. 
HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE 
SYSTEM. 92B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW  IN PARA 1.B(1) //
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