ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/021800Z-
031800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE 
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SS 27S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.8S 
88.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.1S 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 892 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND 
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO APPARENT 
DEEP CONVECTION. A 021617Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE REVEALS A BELT OF 
ELEVATED WINDS (30-35 KNOTS) CONTINUING TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-25 C. BOTH 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, ALTHOUGH THE GEFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND 
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND 
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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