ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 27S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.0S 88.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8S 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 888 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED 
AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO 
APPARENT DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 011221Z SSMIS F16 91H MICROWAVE 
IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-25 C. BOTH 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE GEFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT 
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR HAZARDS 
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS 
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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