WTXS21 PGTW 270500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 121.0E TO 15.9S 124.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY
252 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A 
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VERY INTENSE, 
DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST SIDE. A 270142Z 
ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH A SWATH OF 30 
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, OFFSET BY WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. OVER THE 
COURSE OF 48 HOURS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE 
SYSTEM'S TRACK, INITIALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO 
A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. 
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS SPLIT, WITH MOST MODEL MEMBERS REACHING 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM 
(25-30 KNOTS), THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A STRONGER SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY 
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 18. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280500Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DIRECTION IN REFERENCE TO 
THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA.//
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