ABIO10 PGTW 261430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/261430Z-261800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260751ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26MAR25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 104.1E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE 
COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 260900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9S 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY 194 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER A VERY WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS CURRENTLY 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF 
AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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