ABIO10 PGTW 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/232200Z-241800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232151ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4S 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 114.0E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM 
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRAILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 231720Z ASMR2 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL 231305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20-25 
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC, AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER, GRADIENT-
INDUCED 25-30 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN BROAD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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