WTXS21 PGTW 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 114.2E TO 17.2S 110.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 114.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVOISOULY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.4S 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 114.0E APPROXIMATELTY 469 
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRAILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 231720Z ASMR2 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL 231305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20-25 
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC, AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER, GRADIENT-
INDUCED 25-30 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN BROAD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
242200Z.//
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