ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-
241800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.9S 114.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 113.8E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM 
NORTH OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDERNEATH WEAKLY SHEARED PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION. PARTIAL 231305Z METOP-B AND 231558Z METOP-C PASSES REVEAL A 
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE 
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED STEADY CONSOLIDATION AND 
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS, GEFS, AND EC-EPS PREDICTING THAT 92S WILL REACH 
THE WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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