ABIO10 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/231400Z-231800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.5S 115.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM 
NORTH OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 
231102Z SSMIS 89H DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DEEP PERSISTENT 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE 
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED STEADY 
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE 
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE GFS, GEFS, AND ECENS 
PREDICTING THAT 92S WILL REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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