ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.5S 115.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 556 NM 
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS BROADLY TURNING CIRCULATION AND SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING BANDING WITH FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 221418Z METOP-
C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD WIND FIELD ADJACENT TO SURGE FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE NORTH AND A POORLY DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
OF 10-15 KNOTS, MODERATE OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT IN A COMPETITIVE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A GRADUAL TURN 
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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