ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/161800Z-171800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 25S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.7S 55.9E, 
APPROXIMATELY 407 NM SOUTH OF DES GALETS, LA REUNION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT AN AREA OF RELATIVELY 
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S 
“JUDE”, THE AREA IS MARKED BY DISLODGED CONVECTION FROM THE ASSESSED LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE 
AREA OF CONVECTION 25S IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
HAS POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. AS THE DISORGANIZED AREA TRANSITS FARTHER INTO COOLER 
(23-25C) WATERS THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CONCURRENCE THAT 
25S WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERLY TRANSIT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND DOES NOT 
SHOW ANY PROMISING SIGNS OF REMEMBERING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR HAZARDS AND 
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT 
OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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