ABIO10 PGTW 121530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/121530Z-121800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZMAR2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121451ZMAR2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12MAR25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.5S 74.3E, APPROXIMATELY 751 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF 
A (WTXS31 PGTW 120900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 25S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4S 35.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 35.5E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF 25S AS A QUICKLY REGENERATING CIRCULATION WITH 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP 
ALONG THE COASTLINE. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, THE 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE MOVING FORWARD, AS THE 
SYSTEM TRANSITS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 
12 HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), VERY STRONG 
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A VERY HUMID LAYER COUPLED WITH THE 
ZAMBEZI RIVER BENEATH ARE ALL GREATLY SUPPORTING THE REGENERATION 
POTENTIAL. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 25S WILL BE COMPLETELY OVER THE WARM (28-29 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 121500) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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