WTXS21 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 25S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7S 35.2E TO 20.5S 39.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031212Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 35.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 25S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4S 35.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 35.5E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF 25S AS A QUICKLY REGENERATING CIRCULATION WITH 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP 
ALONG THE COASTLINE. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, THE 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE MOVING FORWARD, AS THE SYSTEM 
TRANSITS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), VERY STRONG DUAL 
CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A VERY HUMID LAYER COUPLED WITH THE ZAMBEZI 
RIVER BENEATH ARE ALL GREATLY SUPPORTING THE REGENERATION POTENTIAL. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 25S WILL BE COMPLETELY OVER THE WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
131500Z.
//
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