ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-
121800ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11MAR25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IVONE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.3S 79.1E, APPROXIMATELY 880 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 25S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1S 
35.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING. AN 111101Z AMSR2 GW1 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, AS WELL AS 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DEVELOPMENT 
IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY 
OVER LAND. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 
FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND STRONG 
VERTICAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT 25S WILL REMAIN WELL CONSOLIDATED AND 
TRACK OVER WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE 
CHANNEL BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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