WTXS22 PGTW 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072030Z MAR 25//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 072030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 50.5E TO 15.9S 41.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 49.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 26
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 49.3E, APPROXIMATELY 369 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COMOROS, AFRICA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. A 
PARTIAL 072304Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS SWATH OF 30 KTS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
OFFSET DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS NORTHERN 
MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTING WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
090400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E//
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