ABIO10 PGTW 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/080400Z-090400ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072330ZMAR2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080351ZMAR2025//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 49.3E, APPROXIMATELY 369 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COMOROS, AFRICA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. 
A PARTIAL 072304Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS SWATH OF 30 KTS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
OFFSET DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS NORTHERN 
MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL CONTINUE 
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTING WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 080400) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
FRAGMENTED BUT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 071759Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALED A 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 30 KTS WINDS 
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH
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