WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WARNING NR 030    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 153.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 153.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 26.8S 152.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 153.0E.
08MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 18P WITH A FULLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS REMAINING SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS SHEARED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DUE TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 40-45 KTS, WHILE THE
SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD INTERACTS WITH COASTAL BRISBANE TO THE
WEST AND MORETON ISLAND TO THE EAST. AFTER TC 18P MAKES LANDFALL,
FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECASTED AS THE LLCC ENCOUNTERS ENHANCED
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS THROUGH LAND INTERACTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
INDICATING THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
MORETON BAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 072304Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWING TWO ISOLATED
AREAS OF 35 KTS INTENSITIES IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROADER
SURFACE TURNING.THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 18 FEET.//
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