WTXS21 PGTW 072330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
285 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 88.0E TO 22.5S 78.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 072030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 86.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
FRAGMENTED BUT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 071759Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALED A 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 30 KTS WINDS 
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
082330Z.//
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