ABIO10 PGTW 072230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/072230Z-081800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
FRAGMENTED BUT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 071759Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALED A 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 30 KTS WINDS 
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.5S 52.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 51.8E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION AND 
DENSE DEEP CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN 
MADAGASCAR. A 071752Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS AND ISOLATED 
SWATH OF 30 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72 
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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