ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 88.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 071514Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED 15-20 KTS WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2S 53.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 52.7E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC 
ROTATION AND DEEP CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 
EARLIER 071506Z WSFM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A DISORGANIZED 
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED CONVECTIVE LINES WRAPPING 
INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), WEAK POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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